electionsmcp › races › Arizona State Senate District 16
Arizona State Senate District 16
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State Senate District 16 →
Current officeholder
Thomas "T.J." Shope Republican
2024 result
Republican R+12.0
2024 votes cast
104,461
Office
State Senate
Precinct results — 2024 general
69 precincts reported in Arizona State Senate District 16's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04021-80 PROVINCE | Republican | R+11.3 | 5,226 |
| 04019-Precinct 005 | Republican | R+41.2 | 3,458 |
| 04021-102 MARICOPA WELLS | Republican | R+11.8 | 3,427 |
| 04021-41 CASA GRANDE INTERCHANGE | Republican | R+21.2 | 3,235 |
| 04021-100 DESERT CEDARS | Democratic | D+1.2 | 3,189 |
| 04021-39 CASA GRANDE RANCHO GRANDE | Republican | R+24.4 | 3,068 |
| 04021-18 COOLIDGE NW | Republican | R+26.8 | 2,951 |
| 04019-Precinct 153 | Democratic | D+34.8 | 2,937 |
| 04021-13 TOLTEC | Republican | R+25.1 | 2,905 |
| 04021-99 MISSION VALLEY | Republican | R+18.3 | 2,900 |
| 04019-Precinct 021 | Democratic | D+13.9 | 2,768 |
| 04021-83 COYOTE RANCH | Republican | R+26.1 | 2,761 |
| 04019-Precinct 092 | Democratic | D+17.4 | 2,743 |
| 04021-111 TORTOSA | Republican | R+0.2 | 2,554 |
| 04021-09 ARIZONA CITY | Republican | R+30.7 | 2,445 |
| 04021-35 CASA GRANDE NE | Republican | R+16.3 | 2,356 |
| 04021-79 MARICOPA FIESTA | Republican | R+9.3 | 2,352 |
| 04021-55 CASA GRANDE WEST | Republican | R+25.5 | 2,179 |
| 04021-81 IRONWOOD COMMON | Republican | R+18.3 | 2,163 |
| 04021-78 MARICOPA MEADOWS | Republican | R+12.1 | 2,141 |
All 69 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State Senate District 16 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State Senate District 16 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arizona State Senate District 16 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State Senate District 16?
Thomas "T.J." Shope (Republican) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State Senate District 16?
R+12.0 — 45,888 Democratic, 58,386 Republican, of 104,461 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.