electionsmcp › races › Arizona State Senate District 15
Arizona State Senate District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State Senate District 15 →
Current officeholder
Jake Hoffman Republican
2024 result
Republican R+31.9
2024 votes cast
137,497
Office
State Senate
Precinct results — 2024 general
45 precincts reported in Arizona State Senate District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04021-28 QUEEN CREEK | Republican | R+30.6 | 5,967 |
| 04013-RITTENHOUSE | Republican | R+38.1 | 5,227 |
| 04013-SUNLAND VILLAGE | Republican | R+19.3 | 4,765 |
| 04013-CORTINA | Republican | R+33.7 | 4,551 |
| 04013-SONOQUI | Republican | R+51.0 | 4,331 |
| 04021-86 CIRCLE CROSS RANCH | Republican | R+29.6 | 4,164 |
| 04013-SOSSAMAN | Republican | R+43.9 | 4,132 |
| 04021-98 LINKS ESTATES | Republican | R+31.6 | 4,012 |
| 04013-HARVEST | Republican | R+44.1 | 3,964 |
| 04013-RUSSET | Republican | R+42.3 | 3,948 |
| 04013-SILVER CREEK | Republican | R+36.8 | 3,702 |
| 04013-LAS COLINAS | Republican | R+25.1 | 3,674 |
| 04021-95 QUEEN CREEK SOUTH | Republican | R+36.0 | 3,595 |
| 04021-97 COPPER BASIN SOUTHEAST | Republican | R+19.4 | 3,448 |
| 04021-88 IRONWOOD CROSSING WEST | Republican | R+39.6 | 3,430 |
| 04021-68 SAN TAN PARK | Republican | R+25.6 | 3,425 |
| 04013-ENCLAVE | Republican | R+29.3 | 3,366 |
| 04021-26 JOHNSON RANCH | Republican | R+34.9 | 3,182 |
| 04013-DESERT HAVEN | Republican | R+28.5 | 3,074 |
| 04021-108 IRONWOOD CROSSING EAST | Republican | R+45.5 | 3,019 |
All 45 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State Senate District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State Senate District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arizona State Senate District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State Senate District 15?
Jake Hoffman (Republican) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State Senate District 15?
R+31.9 — 43,769 Democratic, 87,580 Republican, of 137,497 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.