electionsmcp › races › Arizona U.S. Senate
Arizona U.S. Senate
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Current officeholder
being added
2024 result
Democratic D+2.4
2024 votes cast
3,353,985
Office
U.S. Senate
Who lives in Arizona
Arizona is home to about 7,268,175 people, median age 38.8, median household income $76,872.
Population
7,268,175
Median age
38.8
Median household income
$76,872
Bachelor's degree or higher
32.6%
Race & ethnicity: White 53.4% · Black 4.6% · Hispanic 31% · Asian 3.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona U.S. Senate in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona U.S. Senate (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arizona U.S. Senate in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona U.S. Senate?
The current officeholder for this seat is being added.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona U.S. Senate?
D+2.4 — 1,676,123 Democratic, 1,594,959 Republican, of 3,353,985 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.