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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District

The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.

Model Arizona's 2nd Congressional District →

Arizona's 2nd Congressional District — highlighted within Arizona's U.S. House districts · 2024: R+8.8 · open the interactive map →

Current officeholder

Elijah Crane Republican

2024 result

Republican R+8.8

2024 votes cast

405,811

Office

U.S. House

District health & safety estimate

Context for Elijah Crane's district

CDC WONDER, 2016–2022 · translated from county data

#134 highest estimated rate of 412 districts with publishable coverage

7.1estimated homicides per 100,000 residents / year

Reporting-population coverage100.0%

This is a county-derived estimate, not a direct CDC congressional-district statistic. Counties with suppressed small counts are missing, never counted as zero. Rank 1 is the highest estimated rate.

Who lives in this district

This district is home to about 811,584 people, median age 42.1, median household income $64,884.

Population

811,584

Median age

42.1

Median household income

$64,884

Bachelor's degree or higher

25.5%

Race & ethnicity: White 55.1% · Black 2.4% · Hispanic 17.8% · Asian 1.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).

Precinct results — 2024 general

285 precincts reported in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:

Precinct Winner Margin Votes
04017-14 BISON Republican R+51.7 9,092
04017-10 PIONEER Republican R+68.6 8,163
04025-ONYX (337.00) Republican R+10.8 7,171
04025-GOLF (304.00) Republican R+13.8 6,251
04017-21 WOODLAND Republican R+36.6 5,952
04025-AZURE (335.00) Republican R+9.5 5,939
04025-COURT (303.00) Republican R+10.1 5,618
04017-01 RED BUTTE Democratic D+79.4 5,596
04021-80 PROVINCE Republican R+7.5 5,252
04021-109 FLORENCE ANTHEM Republican R+31.6 5,217
04025-BEARS (347.00) Republican R+37.3 5,197
04025-GRAZE (351.00) Republican R+52.4 5,093
04025-RUBY (331.00) Democratic D+18.0 4,999
04025-RANCH (308.00) Republican R+51.6 4,988
04025-WILLOW (306.00) Republican R+33.7 4,971
04025-BISON (346.00) Republican R+33.9 4,864
04025-BIGHORN (345.00) Republican R+30.5 4,746
04025-SCARLET (330.00) Democratic D+16.7 4,546
04025-GRANITE (301.00) Republican R+28.9 4,412
04025-FAIR (305.00) Republican R+18.4 4,370

All 285 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.

Find your district

Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.

Model Arizona's 2nd Congressional District in five steps

  1. Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona's 2nd Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
  2. Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
  3. Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
  4. Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
  5. Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.

Open Arizona's 2nd Congressional District in the simulator →

Frequently asked

Who represents Arizona's 2nd Congressional District?
Elijah Crane (Republican) currently holds this U.S. House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District?
R+8.8 — 184,772 Democratic, 220,641 Republican, of 405,811 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.
What is the homicide-rate estimate for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District?
Arizona's 2nd Congressional District has a county-derived estimate of 7.1 homicides per 100,000 residents per year and ranks 134 of 412 districts with publishable coverage, where rank 1 is the highest estimated rate. Reporting-population coverage is 100.0%.

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