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2026 Senate Elections

35 seats on the ballot decide control of the Senate. Every race below is rated from certified 2024 results and opens straight into a precinct-level model you can run yourself.

Open the 2026 Senate map →

Every seat on the 2026 ballot, rated from certified 2024 results — dark states carry over · open the live map →

Seats on the ballot

35

Carryover (not up)

D 34 · R 31

Majority

51 seats

Baseline tally

D 46 · R 54

Safe D · 1Likely D · 5Lean D · 5Tossup · 4Likely R · 8Safe R · 1235 races

Ratings are the certified 2024 baseline — each state's presidential lean bucketed Safe (20+), Likely (10–20), Lean (4–10), Tossup (<4). Not a forecast: the map shows where every race starts. When the seat's incumbent and the state's lean disagree, that's the race to model.

The battleground — 9 closest races

Michigan
Tossup · 2024 lean R+1.4 Georgia
Tossup · 2024 lean R+2.2 New Hampshire
Tossup · 2024 lean D+2.8 North Carolina
Tossup · 2024 lean R+3.2 Minnesota
Lean D · 2024 lean D+4.3 Virginia
Lean D · 2024 lean D+5.8 New Jersey
Lean D · 2024 lean D+5.9 New Mexico
Lean D · 2024 lean D+6.0 Maine
Lean D · 2024 lean D+6.9

Flip it yourself — the live board

2026 U.S. Senate · live the real tool — click a state, change a call, watch the majority move

Open the full workspace →

The rest of the map

Alabama
Safe R · 2024 lean R+30.6 Alaska
Likely R · 2024 lean R+13.7 Arkansas
Safe R · 2024 lean R+30.6 Colorado
Likely D · 2024 lean D+11.0 Delaware
Likely D · 2024 lean D+14.7 Florida special
Ashley Moody Republican · Likely R · 2024 lean R+13.1 Idaho
Safe R · 2024 lean R+36.5 Illinois
Likely D · 2024 lean D+11.0 Iowa
Likely R · 2024 lean R+13.3 Kansas
Likely R · 2024 lean R+16.1 Kentucky
Safe R · 2024 lean R+30.6 Louisiana
Safe R · 2024 lean R+22.0 Massachusetts
Safe D · 2024 lean D+25.3 Mississippi
Safe R · 2024 lean R+22.9 Montana
Likely R · 2024 lean R+19.9 Nebraska
Safe R · 2024 lean R+20.6 Ohio special
Jon Husted Republican · Likely R · 2024 lean R+11.2 Oklahoma
Safe R · 2024 lean R+34.3 Oregon
Likely D · 2024 lean D+14.4 Rhode Island
Likely D · 2024 lean D+13.9 South Carolina
Likely R · 2024 lean R+17.9 South Dakota
Safe R · 2024 lean R+29.2 Tennessee
Safe R · 2024 lean R+29.7 Texas
Likely R · 2024 lean R+13.7 West Virginia
Safe R · 2024 lean R+41.9 Wyoming
Safe R · 2024 lean R+46.2

Frequently asked questions

How many Senate seats are up in 2026?
35 seats — the full Class II rotation, plus special elections in Ohio and Florida for appointed seats. The other 65 senators are not on the ballot and carry over.
What does it take to control the Senate after 2026?
51 seats. Going into the cycle the carryover (seats not on the ballot) stands at 34 Democratic and 31 Republican — the 35 races below decide control on top of that baseline.
What do the ratings mean?
Each race is rated by the state's certified 2024 presidential lean: Safe (20+ points), Likely (10–20), Lean (4–10), Tossup (under 4). This is the starting map, not a forecast — an incumbent can hold a seat that leans the other way, and those disagreements are exactly the races worth modeling.
Can I model these races myself?
Yes — every race opens in the precinct-level simulator with real 2024 returns loaded. Change swing and turnout, or override any county or precinct, and the chamber math recomputes live.

Model the other chamber

All 435 U.S. House districts are on the same 2026 ballot — see the House board →