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electionsmcp2028 races › Primaries

2028 Presidential Primary Simulator

Pick the field, call the early states, run the calendar to 1,990. The live tool below is the real thing — start modeling right here, free.

live tool — click a state to model it

Open the full primary workspace →

To clinch (Dem)

1,990 delegates

Dem rule

Proportional · 15% line

GOP rule

Winner-take-all

To start

Free · no account

Published paths

Other people's 2028 primary paths, newest first — each one frozen with its version, and each one a starting point you can copy into your own sandbox. These are scenarios someone modeled, not forecasts.

Dogfood dem_primary_2028 proper
BluePath · Jul 27, 2026
RedPath 2028 nomination path
RedPath · Jul 21, 2026
BluePath 2028 nomination path
BluePath · Jul 21, 2026
2028 Dem Primary Audit — 16-way field
BluePath · electionsmcp audit desk · Jul 9, 2026
2028 GOP Primary: The Post-Trump Field
RedPath · The 2028 Desk · Jul 9, 2026
Platform Audit 2028
BluePath · Platform Audit · Jul 8, 2026
2028 Democratic Primary - Wide Field Baseline (Codex)
BluePath · Codex for Martin Avila · Jul 8, 2026
[loop-trial] ev_31031f93 — AOC leads 2028 Dem primary (Newsweek 2026-05-12)
BluePath · [loop-trial] Expressibility Loop (automated trial) · Jul 6, 2026
2028 Dem Primary — Harvard-Harris May 2026 (home-state weighted)
BluePath · by Martin Avila · electionsmcp · Jun 17, 2026
prod deck verify
BluePath · Desk · Jun 16, 2026
prod deck verify
BluePath · Desk · Jun 16, 2026
prod deck verify
BluePath · Desk · Jun 16, 2026
OG prod verify
BluePath · Desk · Jun 16, 2026
OG prod verify
BluePath · Desk · Jun 16, 2026
PROD primary verify
BluePath · Model desk · Jun 16, 2026
Buttigieg 2028 — Full Primary Strategy
BluePath · electionsmcp — Pete 2028 strategy desk · Jun 15, 2026
AOC 2028 — Democratic Primary Campaign Plan
BluePath · electionsmcp — AOC 2028 desk · Jun 15, 2026
2028 Democratic Primary — Best-Case Run-Through (all candidates)
BluePath · electionsmcp — Pete 2028 desk · Jun 15, 2026
2028 Dem Primary — Harvard-Harris May 2026 (home-state weighted)
BluePath · by Martin Avila · electionsmcp · Jun 14, 2026

Model the 2028 primary in five steps

  1. Pick your field. Start from the prospective 2028 roster — keep it, trim it, or add your own candidates. No nominee exists yet; the field is yours to define.
  2. Call the early states. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada — set each contest's shares and watch momentum build state by state.
  3. Run the calendar. Every contest allocates delegates under the real party rule — proportional above the 15% viability line for Democrats, winner-take-all for Republicans.
  4. Watch the clinch line. The delegate tally runs live toward 1,990. The map shows who wins where; the count shows who wins, period.
  5. Share your call. Share the exact versioned map with your name and delegate count.

Frequently asked questions

Is the 2028 primary simulator really free?
Yes — the browser primary tool is free and needs no account to start. Saving your work durably, publishing share links, and connecting an AI over MCP are where paid plans begin.
How many delegates win the 2028 Democratic nomination?
1,990 pledged delegates clinch the Democratic nomination in this model. Democratic contests allocate proportionally among candidates above a 15% viability threshold.
How does the Republican primary allocate delegates?
The model applies winner-take-all allocation for Republican contests — carry a state, take its delegates.
How does the primary scenario work?
You define the candidate field and every state's shares; the delegate engine calculates the resulting calendar path and clinch line.
Can an AI run the primary for me?
Yes — electionsmcp is an MCP server. Connect Claude, Codex, or Cursor and ask it to run the 2028 primary with your prospective field.

The rest of the 2028 ballot

The general is on the same engine — the presidential map, every 2028 Senate race, and the 2026 Senate and House boards.