electionsmcp › races › Arizona State House District 4
Arizona State House District 4
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State House District 4 →
Current officeholder
Pamela Carter Republican
2024 result
Republican R+5.2
2024 votes cast
275,365
Office
State House
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State House District 4 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State House District 4 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arizona State House District 4 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State House District 4?
Pamela Carter (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State House District 4?
R+5.2 — 130,445 Democratic, 144,746 Republican, of 275,365 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.