electionsmcp › races › Arizona State House District 4
Arizona State House District 4
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State House District 4 →
Current officeholder
Pamela Carter Republican
2024 result
Republican R+5.2
2024 votes cast
275,365
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
70 precincts reported in Arizona State House District 4's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04013-MCCORMICK RANCH | Republican | R+4.1 | 9,632 |
| 04013-HORIZON | Republican | R+15.4 | 8,502 |
| 04013-SIERRA PASS | Republican | R+2.6 | 7,971 |
| 04013-AVIANO | Republican | R+5.1 | 6,836 |
| 04013-MUSTANG | Republican | R+11.3 | 6,790 |
| 04013-TATUM | Republican | R+9.1 | 6,743 |
| 04013-PINE VALLEY | Republican | R+19.3 | 6,297 |
| 04013-MUMMY MOUNTAIN | Democratic | D+5.9 | 5,818 |
| 04013-DEL JOYA | Republican | R+12.6 | 5,781 |
| 04013-CLEARVIEW | Republican | R+3.1 | 5,474 |
| 04013-MOHAVE | Republican | D+1.7 | 5,431 |
| 04013-JACKRABBIT | Republican | R+7.0 | 5,430 |
| 04013-CHENEY | Republican | R+30.2 | 5,373 |
| 04013-GREENWAY | Republican | R+0.5 | 5,370 |
| 04013-COPPER | Republican | R+4.0 | 5,265 |
| 04013-HILLVIEW | Republican | R+12.1 | 5,240 |
| 04013-KACHINA | Democratic | D+16.6 | 5,069 |
| 04013-PILLAR | Republican | R+11.4 | 5,018 |
| 04013-ANNETTE | Republican | R+7.9 | 4,884 |
| 04013-REDWING | Democratic | D+9.6 | 4,855 |
All 70 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State House District 4 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State House District 4 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from the canonical mixed-grain 2024 presidential baseline.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Explore local geography. Zoom from the state through counties to the finest supported reporting grain and adjust the places available in the model.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then share the exact versioned scenario.
Open Arizona State House District 4 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State House District 4?
Pamela Carter (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State House District 4?
R+5.2 — 130,445 Democratic, 144,746 Republican, of 275,365 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.