electionsmcp › races › Arizona State Senate District 21
Arizona State Senate District 21
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State Senate District 21 →
Current officeholder
Rosanna Gabaldón Democratic
2024 result
Democratic D+95.3
2024 votes cast
67,453
Office
State Senate
Precinct results — 2024 general
72 precincts reported in Arizona State Senate District 21's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04019-Precinct 231 | Democratic | D+91.2 | 3,112 |
| 04019-Precinct 227 | Democratic | D+92.0 | 3,078 |
| 04019-Precinct 053 | Democratic | D+96.7 | 2,853 |
| 04019-Precinct 232 | Democratic | D+95.4 | 2,689 |
| 04019-Precinct 123 | Democratic | D+94.8 | 2,410 |
| 04019-Precinct 086 | Democratic | D+96.2 | 2,258 |
| 04023-Rio Rico 7 07.1/07.2/07.4 | Democratic | D+95.0 | 2,153 |
| 04019-Precinct 159 | Democratic | D+96.6 | 2,152 |
| 04019-Precinct 177 | Democratic | D+93.6 | 2,071 |
| 04019-Precinct 098 | Democratic | D+95.9 | 1,742 |
| 04019-Precinct 120 | Democratic | D+94.8 | 1,721 |
| 04023-Calabasas 17 17.2/17.3/17.4 | Democratic | D+96.8 | 1,708 |
| 04019-Precinct 096 | Democratic | D+97.8 | 1,694 |
| 04019-Precinct 113 | Democratic | D+93.9 | 1,657 |
| 04019-Precinct 082 | Democratic | D+98.6 | 1,567 |
| 04019-Precinct 117 | Democratic | D+95.7 | 1,521 |
| 04019-Precinct 054 | Democratic | D+94.8 | 1,486 |
| 04019-Precinct 066 | Democratic | D+97.3 | 1,469 |
| 04019-Precinct 147 | Democratic | D+93.7 | 1,419 |
| 04019-Precinct 111 | Democratic | D+96.8 | 1,282 |
All 72 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State Senate District 21 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State Senate District 21 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arizona State Senate District 21 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State Senate District 21?
Rosanna Gabaldón (Democratic) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State Senate District 21?
D+95.3 — 64,282 Democratic, 0 Republican, of 67,453 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.