electionsmcp › races › Arizona State House District 21
Arizona State House District 21
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State House District 21 →
Current officeholder
Stephanie Stahl Hamilton Democratic
2024 result
Democratic D+50.0
2024 votes cast
31,348
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
34 precincts reported in Arizona State House District 21's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04023-Rio Rico 7 07.1/07.2/07.4 | Democratic | D+37.4 | 4,079 |
| 04023-Calabasas 17 17.2/17.3/17.4 | Democratic | D+47.0 | 2,884 |
| 04023-Tubac 11 11.1/11.2/11.3 | Democratic | D+46.4 | 2,442 |
| 04023-Baca 19 19.4/19.5/19.6 | Democratic | D+52.8 | 1,924 |
| 04023-Peck Canyon 21 21.1/21.2/21.3 | Democratic | D+49.1 | 1,908 |
| 04023-Nogales 8 08.1 | Democratic | D+66.1 | 1,763 |
| 04003-04 BI BISBEE | Democratic | D+77.5 | 1,725 |
| 04003-06 BI WARREN | Democratic | D+56.9 | 1,694 |
| 04003-05 BI DON LUIS | Democratic | D+48.0 | 1,490 |
| 04023-Coronado 5 05.1/05.2/05.3/05.5 | Democratic | D+56.6 | 1,301 |
| 04003-19 PALOMINAS | Republican | R+4.7 | 1,148 |
| 04023-Nogales 2 02.1 | Democratic | D+67.1 | 930 |
| 04023-Nogales 10 10.1 | Democratic | D+57.7 | 920 |
| 04023-Nogales 20 20.1 | Democratic | D+67.9 | 860 |
| 04003-52 THREE CANYONS | Republican | R+9.8 | 723 |
| 04003-18 NACO | Democratic | D+57.3 | 662 |
| 04023-Nogales 3 03.1 | Democratic | D+64.6 | 659 |
| 04023-Nogales 18 18.1 | Democratic | D+55.7 | 628 |
| 04023-Baca 19 19.2/19.3 | Democratic | D+58.3 | 582 |
| 04023-Nogales 12 12.1 | Democratic | D+67.4 | 488 |
All 34 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State House District 21 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State House District 21 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arizona State House District 21 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State House District 21?
Stephanie Stahl Hamilton (Democratic) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State House District 21?
D+50.0 — 23,436 Democratic, 7,771 Republican, of 31,348 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.