electionsmcp › races › Arizona State House District 15
Arizona State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
Neal Carter Republican
2024 result
Republican R+53.7
2024 votes cast
201,234
Office
State House
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arizona State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State House District 15?
Neal Carter (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State House District 15?
R+53.7 — 46,368 Democratic, 154,404 Republican, of 201,234 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.