electionsmcp › races › Arizona State House District 15
Arizona State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arizona actually voted.
Model Arizona State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
Neal Carter Republican
2024 result
Republican R+53.7
2024 votes cast
201,234
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
45 precincts reported in Arizona State House District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04021-28 QUEEN CREEK | Republican | R+52.8 | 8,611 |
| 04013-RITTENHOUSE | Republican | R+58.8 | 7,866 |
| 04013-SONOQUI | Republican | R+70.4 | 6,830 |
| 04013-SUNLAND VILLAGE | Republican | R+43.8 | 6,811 |
| 04013-CORTINA | Republican | R+55.8 | 6,759 |
| 04013-SOSSAMAN | Republican | R+63.9 | 6,409 |
| 04013-HARVEST | Republican | R+62.9 | 6,020 |
| 04021-86 CIRCLE CROSS RANCH | Republican | R+50.8 | 5,990 |
| 04013-RUSSET | Republican | R+62.6 | 5,964 |
| 04021-98 LINKS ESTATES | Republican | R+52.8 | 5,810 |
| 04013-SILVER CREEK | Republican | R+57.3 | 5,475 |
| 04013-LAS COLINAS | Republican | R+47.1 | 5,282 |
| 04021-95 QUEEN CREEK SOUTH | Republican | R+55.8 | 5,252 |
| 04021-88 IRONWOOD CROSSING WEST | Republican | R+60.1 | 5,177 |
| 04013-ENCLAVE | Republican | R+52.7 | 5,024 |
| 04021-68 SAN TAN PARK | Republican | R+49.1 | 4,840 |
| 04021-97 COPPER BASIN SOUTHEAST | Republican | R+41.7 | 4,783 |
| 04021-26 JOHNSON RANCH | Republican | R+55.3 | 4,644 |
| 04013-DESERT HAVEN | Republican | R+51.3 | 4,484 |
| 04021-108 IRONWOOD CROSSING EAST | Republican | R+62.9 | 4,481 |
All 45 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arizona State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arizona State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arizona State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arizona State House District 15?
Neal Carter (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arizona State House District 15?
R+53.7 — 46,368 Democratic, 154,404 Republican, of 201,234 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.