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California's 45th Congressional District

The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how California actually voted.

Model California's 45th Congressional District →

California's 45th Congressional District — highlighted within California's U.S. House districts · 2024: D+0.2 · open the interactive map →

Current officeholder

Derek Tran Democratic

2024 result

Democratic D+0.2

2024 votes cast

315,738

Office

U.S. House

District health & safety estimate

Context for Derek Tran's district

CDC WONDER, 2016–2022 · translated from county data

#357 highest estimated rate of 412 districts with publishable coverage

2.7estimated homicides per 100,000 residents / year

Reporting-population coverage100.0%

This is a county-derived estimate, not a direct CDC congressional-district statistic. Counties with suppressed small counts are missing, never counted as zero. Rank 1 is the highest estimated rate.

Who lives in this district

This district is home to about 750,565 people, median age 40.3, median household income $105,268.

Population

750,565

Median age

40.3

Median household income

$105,268

Bachelor's degree or higher

38.1%

Race & ethnicity: White 25.8% · Black 2.2% · Hispanic 30.7% · Asian 37.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).

Precinct results — 2024 general

767 precincts reported in California's 45th Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:

Precinct Winner Margin Votes
06037-1070024AA Democratic D+19.1 2,562
06037-1070057AA Democratic D+15.9 2,465
06037-1070040AA Democratic D+13.0 2,343
06059-14075A Republican R+0.8 2,311
06059-05811A Democratic D+7.2 2,288
06037-1070061AA Democratic D+23.9 2,238
06059-23180A Republican R+4.1 2,234
06059-07182A Republican R+9.3 2,182
06059-39217A Republican R+2.8 2,168
06059-13057A Democratic D+10.5 2,157
06059-05386A Republican R+11.4 2,117
06059-39206A Democratic D+12.9 2,090
06037-1070029AA Democratic D+18.8 2,060
06059-13377A Republican R+4.1 2,042
06059-13096A Republican R+14.3 2,038
06037-1070037AA Democratic D+17.0 2,037
06037-0400004AA Democratic D+18.2 1,912
06059-10319A Democratic D+2.3 1,871
06059-31815A Democratic D+13.6 1,852
06059-14086A Republican R+2.4 1,850

All 767 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.

Find your district

Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.

Model California's 45th Congressional District in five steps

  1. Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the California's 45th Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
  2. Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
  3. Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
  4. Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
  5. Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.

Open California's 45th Congressional District in the simulator →

Frequently asked

Who represents California's 45th Congressional District?
Derek Tran (Democratic) currently holds this U.S. House seat.
What was the 2024 result in California's 45th Congressional District?
D+0.2 — 158,216 Democratic, 157,522 Republican, of 315,738 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.
What is the homicide-rate estimate for California's 45th Congressional District?
California's 45th Congressional District has a county-derived estimate of 2.7 homicides per 100,000 residents per year and ranks 357 of 412 districts with publishable coverage, where rank 1 is the highest estimated rate. Reporting-population coverage is 100.0%.

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