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California's 15th Congressional District
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how California actually voted.
Model California's 15th Congressional District →
Current officeholder
Kevin Mullin Democratic
2024 result
Democratic D+46.2
2024 votes cast
289,408
Office
U.S. House
Who lives in this district
This district is home to about 742,872 people, median age 40.5, median household income $145,326.
Population
742,872
Median age
40.5
Median household income
$145,326
Bachelor's degree or higher
48.2%
Race & ethnicity: White 28.3% · Black 2.6% · Hispanic 26.1% · Asian 37.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).
Precinct results — 2024 general
495 precincts reported in California's 15th Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06081-36021A | Democratic | D+52.5 | 2,605 |
| 06081-26046A | Democratic | D+51.6 | 2,584 |
| 06081-37001A | Democratic | D+52.3 | 2,534 |
| 06081-26043A | Democratic | D+55.3 | 2,454 |
| 06081-14006A | Democratic | D+23.0 | 2,418 |
| 06081-26058A | Democratic | D+48.6 | 2,403 |
| 06081-26049A | Democratic | D+51.9 | 2,362 |
| 06081-26036A | Democratic | D+43.5 | 2,288 |
| 06081-26052A | Democratic | D+50.6 | 2,274 |
| 06081-22008A | Democratic | D+44.4 | 2,194 |
| 06081-36009A | Democratic | D+61.2 | 2,193 |
| 06081-22010A | Democratic | D+45.6 | 2,177 |
| 06081-26008A | Democratic | D+51.6 | 2,147 |
| 06081-15006A | Democratic | D+20.4 | 2,122 |
| 06081-46033A | Democratic | D+53.8 | 2,115 |
| 06081-26030A | Democratic | D+57.5 | 2,103 |
| 06081-26026A | Democratic | D+60.0 | 2,084 |
| 06081-56022A | Democratic | D+47.5 | 2,080 |
| 06081-46038A | Democratic | D+48.2 | 2,073 |
| 06081-15012A | Democratic | D+35.8 | 2,064 |
All 495 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model California's 15th Congressional District in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the California's 15th Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from the canonical mixed-grain 2024 presidential baseline.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Explore local geography. Zoom from the state through counties to the finest supported reporting grain and adjust the places available in the model.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then share the exact versioned scenario.
Open California's 15th Congressional District in the simulator →