electionsmcp › races › California State Senate District 15
California State Senate District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how California actually voted.
Model California State Senate District 15 →
Current officeholder
Dave Cortese Democratic
2024 result
Democratic D+37.2
2024 votes cast
379,839
Office
State Senate
Precinct results — 2024 general
729 precincts reported in California State Senate District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06085-0008491A | Democratic | D+50.6 | 2,362 |
| 06085-0008858A | Democratic | D+40.2 | 2,147 |
| 06085-0008861A | Democratic | D+34.8 | 2,115 |
| 06085-0008444A | Democratic | D+41.9 | 2,095 |
| 06085-0008889A | Democratic | D+24.0 | 2,084 |
| 06085-0008086A | Democratic | D+52.3 | 2,064 |
| 06085-0008648A | Democratic | D+40.4 | 2,036 |
| 06085-0007272A | Democratic | D+40.5 | 1,981 |
| 06085-0008668A | Democratic | D+47.3 | 1,962 |
| 06085-0004804A | Democratic | D+28.0 | 1,924 |
| 06085-0007419A | Democratic | D+66.3 | 1,887 |
| 06085-0004925A | Democratic | D+26.1 | 1,879 |
| 06085-0008646A | Democratic | D+38.4 | 1,863 |
| 06085-0008497A | Democratic | D+39.8 | 1,859 |
| 06085-0004928A | Democratic | D+32.4 | 1,822 |
| 06085-0004807A | Democratic | D+23.4 | 1,812 |
| 06085-0008853A | Democratic | D+41.2 | 1,803 |
| 06085-0008479A | Democratic | D+54.0 | 1,771 |
| 06085-0004939A | Democratic | D+36.2 | 1,765 |
| 06085-0008433A | Democratic | D+39.5 | 1,752 |
All 729 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model California State Senate District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the California State Senate District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open California State Senate District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents California State Senate District 15?
Dave Cortese (Democratic) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in California State Senate District 15?
D+37.2 — 260,627 Democratic, 119,212 Republican, of 379,839 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.