electionsmcp › races › Pennsylvania State House District 15
Pennsylvania State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Pennsylvania actually voted.
Model Pennsylvania State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
Joshua D. Kail Republican
2024 result
Republican R+37.8
2024 votes cast
35,954
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
59 precincts reported in Pennsylvania State House District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42007-SOUTH BEAVER | Republican | R+46.8 | 1,649 |
| 42007-BRIGHTON X 5X 5 | Republican | R+42.3 | 1,497 |
| 42007-INDEPENDENCE | Republican | R+49.6 | 1,424 |
| 42007-GREENE | Republican | R+51.4 | 1,337 |
| 42007-HANOVER X EASTX EAST | Republican | R+51.0 | 1,256 |
| 42125-CANTON X 5X 5 | Republican | R+31.6 | 1,160 |
| 42007-BRIGHTON X 1X 1 | Republican | R+30.1 | 1,064 |
| 42007-BRIGHTON X 4X 4 | Republican | R+36.9 | 1,055 |
| 42007-BRIGHTON X 2X 2 | Republican | R+30.4 | 1,040 |
| 42007-BEAVER W 2W 2 | Republican | R+21.9 | 1,039 |
| 42007-INDUSTRY | Republican | R+42.5 | 1,030 |
| 42007-BEAVER W 3 X 1W 3X 1 | Republican | R+27.4 | 1,000 |
| 42007-OHIOVILLE X 2X 2 | Republican | R+49.5 | 991 |
| 42125-BUFFALO | Republican | R+52.2 | 987 |
| 42125-CANTON X 2X 2 | Republican | R+19.0 | 980 |
| 42007-OHIOVILLE X 1X 1 | Republican | R+53.8 | 965 |
| 42007-RACCOON X 1X 1 | Republican | R+36.8 | 937 |
| 42007-BEAVER W 1W 1 | Republican | R+14.0 | 865 |
| 42007-BRIGHTON X 3X 3 | Republican | R+40.1 | 858 |
| 42007-VANPORT | Republican | R+19.1 | 804 |
All 59 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Pennsylvania State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Pennsylvania State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Pennsylvania State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Pennsylvania State House District 15?
Joshua D. Kail (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Pennsylvania State House District 15?
R+37.8 — 11,185 Democratic, 24,769 Republican, of 35,954 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.