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Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Pennsylvania actually voted.
Model Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District →
Current officeholder
Mike Kelly Republican
2024 result
Republican R+27.3
2024 votes cast
403,632
Office
U.S. House
Who lives in this district
This district is home to about 763,502 people, median age 42.8, median household income $66,474.
Population
763,502
Median age
42.8
Median household income
$66,474
Bachelor's degree or higher
29.4%
Race & ethnicity: White 88.3% · Black 4.2% · Hispanic 2.8% · Asian 1.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).
Precinct results — 2024 general
471 precincts reported in Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42019-CRANBERRY X WEST X 6X WESTX 6 | Republican | R+15.0 | 4,602 |
| 42019-ADAMS P 4P 4 | Republican | R+42.1 | 4,028 |
| 42019-JACKSON P 2P 2 | Republican | R+34.8 | 3,892 |
| 42019-CRANBERRY X WEST X 7X WESTX 7 | Republican | R+23.0 | 3,481 |
| 42019-SLIPPERY ROCK | Republican | R+21.8 | 3,439 |
| 42019-ADAMS P 1P 1 | Republican | R+22.7 | 3,266 |
| 42019-ADAMS P 5P 5 | Republican | R+41.3 | 3,263 |
| 42019-MIDDLESEX X 3X 3 | Republican | R+41.6 | 2,890 |
| 42019-CONNOQUENESSING P 2P 2 | Republican | R+47.5 | 2,861 |
| 42049-WASHINGTON | Republican | R+19.7 | 2,858 |
| 42019-CRANBERRY X WEST X 8X WESTX 8 | Republican | R+25.5 | 2,621 |
| 42049-MILLCREEK D 25D 25 | Democratic | D+1.0 | 2,565 |
| 42019-LANCASTER | Republican | R+42.9 | 2,468 |
| 42019-CRANBERRY X EAST X 1X EASTX 1 | Republican | R+34.0 | 2,420 |
| 42049-SUMMIT D 1D 1 | Republican | R+16.9 | 2,350 |
| 42019-CRANBERRY X WEST X 2X WESTX 2 | Republican | R+9.1 | 2,259 |
| 42019-CRANBERRY X EAST X 2X EASTX 2 | Republican | R+34.1 | 2,217 |
| 42019-WINFIELD | Republican | R+55.6 | 2,205 |
| 42019-FORWARD | Republican | R+45.2 | 2,198 |
| 42049-SUMMIT D 2D 2 | Republican | R+14.4 | 2,175 |
All 471 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from the canonical mixed-grain 2024 presidential baseline.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Explore local geography. Zoom from the state through counties to the finest supported reporting grain and adjust the places available in the model.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then share the exact versioned scenario.
Open Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District in the simulator →