electionsmcp › races › Pennsylvania State Senate District 31
Pennsylvania State Senate District 31
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Pennsylvania actually voted.
Model Pennsylvania State Senate District 31 →
Current officeholder
Dawn W. Keefer Republican
2024 result
Republican R+21.7
2024 votes cast
133,072
Office
State Senate
Precinct results — 2024 general
90 precincts reported in Pennsylvania State Senate District 31's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42133-EAST MANCHESTER | Republican | R+28.7 | 4,574 |
| 42133-CARROLL | Republican | R+43.9 | 4,363 |
| 42133-FAIRVIEW D 3D 3 | Republican | R+29.4 | 4,304 |
| 42133-NEWBERRY D 1D 1 | Republican | R+50.0 | 3,924 |
| 42133-DOVER D 2D 2 | Republican | R+45.6 | 3,876 |
| 42133-DOVER D 1D 1 | Republican | R+35.8 | 3,752 |
| 42041-LOWER ALLEN P 2P 2 | Republican | R+11.3 | 3,324 |
| 42133-WEST MANCHESTER D 2D 2 | Republican | R+26.2 | 3,169 |
| 42133-CONEWAGO D 1D 1 | Republican | R+32.8 | 3,067 |
| 42133-FRANKLIN | Republican | R+54.0 | 2,880 |
| 42133-WARRINGTON | Republican | R+58.7 | 2,823 |
| 42041-UPPER ALLEN P 8P 8 | Republican | R+10.7 | 2,787 |
| 42133-FAIRVIEW D 2D 2 | Republican | R+27.4 | 2,773 |
| 42133-WEST MANCHESTER D 5D 5 | Republican | R+18.9 | 2,735 |
| 42133-NEWBERRY D 3D 3 | Republican | R+34.1 | 2,647 |
| 42133-DOVER D 3D 3 | Republican | R+45.0 | 2,417 |
| 42133-DOVER D 4D 4 | Republican | R+36.4 | 2,398 |
| 42041-LOWER ALLEN P 5P 5 | Republican | R+6.6 | 2,325 |
| 42133-FAIRVIEW D 4D 4 | Republican | R+43.5 | 2,235 |
| 42133-WEST MANCHESTER D 3D 3 | Republican | R+31.3 | 2,208 |
All 90 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Pennsylvania State Senate District 31 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Pennsylvania State Senate District 31 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Pennsylvania State Senate District 31 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Pennsylvania State Senate District 31?
Dawn W. Keefer (Republican) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in Pennsylvania State Senate District 31?
R+21.7 — 52,109 Democratic, 80,963 Republican, of 133,072 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.