electionsmcp › races › Pennsylvania State House District 40
Pennsylvania State House District 40
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Pennsylvania actually voted.
Model Pennsylvania State House District 40 →
Current officeholder
Natalie Mihalek Republican
2024 result
Republican R+20.7
2024 votes cast
41,683
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
48 precincts reported in Pennsylvania State House District 40's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42125-PETERS X D 1X D 1 | Republican | R+40.9 | 1,792 |
| 42125-PETERS X B 3X B 3 | Republican | R+41.9 | 1,660 |
| 42125-PETERS X B 2X B 2 | Republican | R+42.3 | 1,584 |
| 42125-PETERS X A 3X A 3 | Republican | R+27.1 | 1,402 |
| 42125-PETERS X D 2X D 2 | Republican | R+28.1 | 1,216 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 9 D 3W 9D 3 | Republican | R+11.0 | 1,171 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 5 D 3W 5D 3 | Republican | R+4.1 | 1,159 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 4 D 1W 4D 1 | Republican | R+21.3 | 1,143 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 8 D 3W 8D 3 | Republican | R+12.1 | 1,108 |
| 42125-PETERS X C 1X C 1 | Republican | R+36.2 | 1,091 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 6 D 1W 6D 1 | Republican | R+25.4 | 1,081 |
| 42125-PETERS X B 1X B 1 | Republican | R+40.3 | 1,075 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 7 D 2W 7D 2 | Republican | R+7.7 | 1,010 |
| 42003-UPPER ST. CLAIR W 5 D 2W 5D 2 | Republican | R+15.0 | 1,007 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 7 D 1W 7D 1 | Republican | R+19.7 | 999 |
| 42125-PETERS X C 3X C 3 | Republican | R+32.5 | 986 |
| 42125-PETERS X A 2X A 2 | Republican | R+32.0 | 953 |
| 42003-UPPER ST. CLAIR W 5 D 1W 5D 1 | Republican | R+17.3 | 938 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 3 D 2W 3D 2 | Republican | R+15.4 | 922 |
| 42003-BETHEL PARK W 2 D 3W 2D 3 | Republican | R+16.7 | 912 |
All 48 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Pennsylvania State House District 40 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Pennsylvania State House District 40 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Pennsylvania State House District 40 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Pennsylvania State House District 40?
Natalie Mihalek (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Pennsylvania State House District 40?
R+20.7 — 16,518 Democratic, 25,165 Republican, of 41,683 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.