electionsmcp › races › Florida State Senate District 31
Florida State Senate District 31
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Florida actually voted.
Model Florida State Senate District 31 →
Current officeholder
Gayle Harrell Republican
2024 result
Republican R+22.9
2024 votes cast
325,168
Office
State Senate
Precinct results — 2024 general
222 precincts reported in Florida State Senate District 31's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12111-129 | Republican | R+13.1 | 8,816 |
| 12111-83 | Democratic | D+0.7 | 7,540 |
| 12111-123 | Republican | R+13.9 | 6,938 |
| 12111-115 | Democratic | D+4.3 | 6,574 |
| 12085-2 | Republican | R+37.5 | 5,572 |
| 12111-105 | Democratic | D+0.4 | 5,367 |
| 12085-1 | Republican | R+38.5 | 5,140 |
| 12111-60 | Democratic | D+0.3 | 5,101 |
| 12085-12 | Republican | R+36.7 | 4,993 |
| 12085-7 | Republican | R+25.2 | 4,936 |
| 12085-22 | Republican | R+37.7 | 4,924 |
| 12085-21 | Republican | R+48.9 | 4,845 |
| 12085-25 | Republican | R+44.8 | 4,826 |
| 12111-117 | Republican | R+9.2 | 4,741 |
| 12085-18 | Republican | R+42.5 | 4,679 |
| 12085-26 | Republican | R+43.7 | 4,628 |
| 12085-27 | Republican | R+45.0 | 4,495 |
| 12085-19 | Republican | R+36.6 | 4,414 |
| 12111-71 | Republican | R+29.6 | 4,414 |
| 12085-23 | Republican | R+44.5 | 4,399 |
All 222 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Florida State Senate District 31 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Florida State Senate District 31 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Florida State Senate District 31 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Florida State Senate District 31?
Gayle Harrell (Republican) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in Florida State Senate District 31?
R+22.9 — 125,280 Democratic, 199,888 Republican, of 325,168 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.