electionsmcp › races › Florida State House District 51
Florida State House District 51
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Florida actually voted.
Model Florida State House District 51 →
Current officeholder
Josie Tomkow Republican
2024 result
Republican R+13.8
2024 votes cast
89,733
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
37 precincts reported in Florida State House District 51's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12105-304 | Republican | R+39.0 | 5,243 |
| 12105-402 | Republican | R+7.7 | 4,837 |
| 12105-312 | Republican | R+24.6 | 4,451 |
| 12105-107 | Republican | R+55.6 | 4,313 |
| 12105-401 | Democratic | D+12.5 | 3,911 |
| 12105-303 | Republican | R+48.9 | 3,822 |
| 12105-403 | Republican | R+1.7 | 3,754 |
| 12105-306 | Republican | R+10.0 | 3,656 |
| 12105-404 | Democratic | D+0.7 | 3,490 |
| 12105-406 | Democratic | D+5.1 | 3,178 |
| 12105-103 | Republican | R+1.5 | 3,087 |
| 12105-130 | Democratic | D+9.3 | 2,863 |
| 12105-409 | Democratic | D+4.0 | 2,819 |
| 12105-341 | Democratic | D+11.0 | 2,565 |
| 12105-408 | Democratic | D+0.5 | 2,542 |
| 12105-109 | Republican | R+46.4 | 2,513 |
| 12105-309 | Republican | R+41.1 | 2,501 |
| 12105-422 | Democratic | D+10.1 | 2,439 |
| 12105-105 | Democratic | D+4.1 | 2,302 |
| 12105-104 | Republican | R+1.7 | 2,270 |
All 37 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Florida State House District 51 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Florida State House District 51 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Florida State House District 51 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Florida State House District 51?
Josie Tomkow (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Florida State House District 51?
R+13.8 — 38,683 Democratic, 51,050 Republican, of 89,733 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.