electionsmcp › races › Texas State House District 15
Texas State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Texas actually voted.
Model Texas State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
Steve Toth Independent
2024 result
Republican R+100.0
2024 votes cast
73,720
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
38 precincts reported in Texas State House District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48339-1700087 | Republican | R+100.0 | 3,320 |
| 48339-1700100 | Republican | R+100.0 | 3,260 |
| 48339-1700056 | Republican | R+100.0 | 3,012 |
| 48339-1700078 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,880 |
| 48339-1700088A | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,832 |
| 48339-1700031 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,796 |
| 48339-1700068 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,772 |
| 48339-1700096 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,760 |
| 48339-1700092 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,723 |
| 48339-1700080A | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,719 |
| 48339-1700035 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,697 |
| 48339-1700046 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,612 |
| 48339-1700071 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,589 |
| 48339-1700061 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,580 |
| 48339-1700081 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,550 |
| 48339-1700075 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,423 |
| 48339-1700103 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,348 |
| 48339-1700033 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,329 |
| 48339-1700069 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,326 |
| 48339-1700084 | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,012 |
All 38 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Texas State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Texas State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from the canonical mixed-grain 2024 presidential baseline.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Explore local geography. Zoom from the state through counties to the finest supported reporting grain and adjust the places available in the model.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then share the exact versioned scenario.
Open Texas State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Texas State House District 15?
Steve Toth (Independent) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Texas State House District 15?
R+100.0 — 0 Democratic, 73,720 Republican, of 73,720 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.