electionsmcp › races › Florida State House District 15
Florida State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Florida actually voted.
Model Florida State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
Dean Black Republican
2024 result
Republican R+29.7
2024 votes cast
115,946
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
38 precincts reported in Florida State House District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12089-23 | Republican | R+41.0 | 6,609 |
| 12089-41 | Republican | R+74.9 | 5,218 |
| 12089-12 | Republican | R+20.3 | 5,179 |
| 12089-53 | Republican | R+75.7 | 5,164 |
| 12031-452 | Democratic | D+10.7 | 4,943 |
| 12089-21 | Republican | R+32.1 | 4,730 |
| 12089-13 | Republican | R+29.8 | 4,628 |
| 12031-288 | Democratic | D+47.8 | 4,546 |
| 12089-33 | Republican | R+55.4 | 4,398 |
| 12031-266 | Republican | R+1.0 | 4,347 |
| 12031-46 | Republican | R+12.1 | 4,205 |
| 12089-22 | Republican | R+47.8 | 4,194 |
| 12031-79 | Republican | R+16.8 | 3,963 |
| 12089-51 | Republican | R+42.3 | 3,930 |
| 12031-504 | Democratic | D+11.9 | 3,810 |
| 12031-283 | Democratic | D+17.3 | 3,588 |
| 12089-32 | Republican | R+46.6 | 3,215 |
| 12089-43 | Republican | R+83.9 | 3,026 |
| 12031-302 | Republican | R+11.4 | 2,956 |
| 12089-31 | Republican | R+50.2 | 2,853 |
All 38 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Florida State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Florida State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Florida State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Florida State House District 15?
Dean Black (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Florida State House District 15?
R+29.7 — 40,762 Democratic, 75,184 Republican, of 115,946 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.