electionsmcp › races › Florida State House District 38
Florida State House District 38
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Florida actually voted.
Model Florida State House District 38 →
Current officeholder
David Smith Republican
2024 result
Republican R+0.8
2024 votes cast
89,274
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
30 precincts reported in Florida State House District 38's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12117-209 | Republican | R+23.2 | 4,659 |
| 12117-205 | Republican | R+21.2 | 3,939 |
| 12117-273 | Democratic | D+8.7 | 3,681 |
| 12117-285 | Republican | R+2.2 | 3,453 |
| 12117-247 | Republican | R+0.9 | 3,427 |
| 12117-250 | Republican | R+2.6 | 3,395 |
| 12117-259 | Democratic | D+4.9 | 3,340 |
| 12117-288 | Democratic | D+0.3 | 3,263 |
| 12117-263 | Democratic | D+8.5 | 3,247 |
| 12117-196 | Republican | R+10.1 | 3,210 |
| 12117-281 | Democratic | D+0.1 | 3,193 |
| 12117-254 | Republican | R+14.0 | 3,147 |
| 12117-172 | Democratic | D+2.8 | 3,049 |
| 12117-237 | Democratic | D+3.7 | 2,979 |
| 12117-183 | Democratic | D+10.7 | 2,907 |
| 12117-200 | Republican | R+17.6 | 2,906 |
| 12117-241 | Republican | R+9.2 | 2,832 |
| 12117-228 | Republican | R+8.1 | 2,827 |
| 12117-220 | Republican | R+2.7 | 2,807 |
| 12117-192 | Republican | R+7.5 | 2,730 |
All 30 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Florida State House District 38 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Florida State House District 38 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Florida State House District 38 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Florida State House District 38?
David Smith (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Florida State House District 38?
R+0.8 — 44,302 Democratic, 44,972 Republican, of 89,274 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.