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Virginia's 5th Congressional District
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Virginia actually voted.
Model Virginia's 5th Congressional District →
Current officeholder
John J. McGuire III Republican
2024 result
being added
Office
U.S. House
Who lives in this district
This district is home to about 792,934 people, median age 41.5, median household income $70,085.
Population
792,934
Median age
41.5
Median household income
$70,085
Bachelor's degree or higher
33.5%
Race & ethnicity: White 69.1% · Black 20.4% · Hispanic 4.4% · Asian 2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).
Precinct results — 2024 general
328 precincts reported in Virginia's 5th Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51003-506 - BAKER-BUTLER | Democratic | D+24.5 | 3,882 |
| 51680-401 - FOURTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT | Republican | R+27.6 | 3,742 |
| 51065-501 - RIVANNA | Democratic | D+8.6 | 3,674 |
| 51109-401 - MINERAL | Republican | R+41.8 | 3,465 |
| 51003-405 - MOUNTAIN VIEW | Democratic | D+51.6 | 3,375 |
| 51003-301 - IVY | Democratic | D+37.4 | 3,338 |
| 51019-504 - BOONSBORO RURITAN CLUB | Republican | R+50.7 | 3,284 |
| 51065-401 - CUNNINGHAM | Republican | R+25.2 | 3,262 |
| 51003-606 - MECHUMS RIVER | Democratic | D+34.6 | 3,249 |
| 51540-101 - Key Recreation | Democratic | D+72.0 | 3,209 |
| 51065-101 - PALMYRA | Republican | R+1.6 | 3,169 |
| 51065-301 - FORK UNION | Republican | R+14.3 | 3,164 |
| 51031-402 - COURT HOUSE | Republican | R+55.8 | 3,134 |
| 51540-401 - CHARLOTTESVILLE HIGH SCHOOL | Democratic | D+62.1 | 3,132 |
| 51003-601 - CROZET | Democratic | D+21.8 | 3,127 |
| 51680-102 - FIRST WARD SECOND PRECINCT | Republican | R+11.4 | 3,079 |
| 51680-101 - FIRST WARD FIRST PRECINCT | Republican | R+2.8 | 3,002 |
| 51065-201 - COLUMBIA | Republican | R+17.6 | 2,996 |
| 51145-401 - POWHATAN COURTHOUSE | Republican | R+51.8 | 2,974 |
| 51003-105 - DUNLORA | Democratic | D+52.7 | 2,967 |
All 328 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Virginia's 5th Congressional District in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Virginia's 5th Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from the canonical mixed-grain 2024 presidential baseline.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Explore local geography. Zoom from the state through counties to the finest supported reporting grain and adjust the places available in the model.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then share the exact versioned scenario.
Open Virginia's 5th Congressional District in the simulator →