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Virginia's 5th Congressional District
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Virginia actually voted.
Model Virginia's 5th Congressional District →
Current officeholder
John J. McGuire III Republican
2024 result
being added
Office
U.S. House
District health & safety estimate
Context for John J. McGuire III's district
CDC WONDER, 2016–2022 · translated from county data
6.1estimated homicides per 100,000 residents / year
This is a county-derived estimate, not a direct CDC congressional-district statistic. Counties with suppressed small counts are missing, never counted as zero. Rank 1 is the highest estimated rate.
Who lives in this district
This district is home to about 792,934 people, median age 41.5, median household income $70,085.
Population
792,934
Median age
41.5
Median household income
$70,085
Bachelor's degree or higher
33.5%
Race & ethnicity: White 69.1% · Black 20.4% · Hispanic 4.4% · Asian 2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).
Precinct results — 2024 general
328 precincts reported in Virginia's 5th Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51003-506 - BAKER-BUTLER | Democratic | D+24.5 | 3,882 |
| 51680-401 - FOURTH WARD FIRST PRECINCT | Republican | R+27.6 | 3,742 |
| 51065-501 - RIVANNA | Democratic | D+8.6 | 3,674 |
| 51109-401 - MINERAL | Republican | R+41.8 | 3,465 |
| 51003-405 - MOUNTAIN VIEW | Democratic | D+51.6 | 3,375 |
| 51003-301 - IVY | Democratic | D+37.4 | 3,338 |
| 51019-504 - BOONSBORO RURITAN CLUB | Republican | R+50.7 | 3,284 |
| 51065-401 - CUNNINGHAM | Republican | R+25.2 | 3,262 |
| 51003-606 - MECHUMS RIVER | Democratic | D+34.6 | 3,249 |
| 51540-101 - Key Recreation | Democratic | D+72.0 | 3,209 |
| 51065-101 - PALMYRA | Republican | R+1.6 | 3,169 |
| 51065-301 - FORK UNION | Republican | R+14.3 | 3,164 |
| 51031-402 - COURT HOUSE | Republican | R+55.8 | 3,134 |
| 51540-401 - CHARLOTTESVILLE HIGH SCHOOL | Democratic | D+62.1 | 3,132 |
| 51003-601 - CROZET | Democratic | D+21.8 | 3,127 |
| 51680-102 - FIRST WARD SECOND PRECINCT | Republican | R+11.4 | 3,079 |
| 51680-101 - FIRST WARD FIRST PRECINCT | Republican | R+2.8 | 3,002 |
| 51065-201 - COLUMBIA | Republican | R+17.6 | 2,996 |
| 51145-401 - POWHATAN COURTHOUSE | Republican | R+51.8 | 2,974 |
| 51003-105 - DUNLORA | Democratic | D+52.7 | 2,967 |
All 328 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Virginia's 5th Congressional District in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Virginia's 5th Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Virginia's 5th Congressional District in the simulator →