electionsmcp › races › Tennessee State Senate District 15
Tennessee State Senate District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Tennessee actually voted.
Model Tennessee State Senate District 15 →
Current officeholder
Paul Bailey Republican
2024 result
being added
Office
State Senate
Precinct results — 2022 general
85 precincts reported in Tennessee State Senate District 15's 2022 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47035-9 Fairfield North | Republican | R+100.0 | 2,184 |
| 47141-9B Double Springs | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,412 |
| 47035-1 Cornerstone | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,342 |
| 47035-9 Fairfield South | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,291 |
| 47141-1A Capshaw | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,224 |
| 47141-2A Northeast | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,109 |
| 47035-2 Complex 2 | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,080 |
| 47035-5 Tansi | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,065 |
| 47141-7A Burgess Falls | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,050 |
| 47141-5C Prescott South | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,025 |
| 47185-7-1 Northfield | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,022 |
| 47141-6A Cane Creek | Republican | R+100.0 | 970 |
| 47185-3-1 Ag Fair Complex | Republican | R+100.0 | 937 |
| 47035-8 Pomona | Republican | R+100.0 | 932 |
| 47035-6 Chestnut Hill | Republican | R+100.0 | 911 |
| 47035-4 Oak Hill | Republican | R+100.0 | 900 |
| 47141-11A Bangham | Republican | R+100.0 | 881 |
| 47141-8G Upperman | Republican | R+100.0 | 862 |
| 47185-5-1 Doyle Civic | Republican | R+100.0 | 852 |
| 47141-12B Algood Outside | Republican | R+100.0 | 851 |
All 85 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Tennessee State Senate District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Tennessee State Senate District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Tennessee State Senate District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Tennessee State Senate District 15?
Paul Bailey (Republican) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in Tennessee State Senate District 15?
Precinct-level 2024 results for this race are being added.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.