electionsmcp › races › Oregon State House District 15
Oregon State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Oregon actually voted.
Model Oregon State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
Shelly Boshart Davis Republican
2024 result
Republican R+16.4
2024 votes cast
40,411
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
30 precincts reported in Oregon State House District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41003-Precinct 11 | Republican | R+8.1 | 6,048 |
| 41043-Precinct 011 | Republican | R+11.1 | 2,688 |
| 41043-Precinct 018 | Republican | R+12.9 | 2,269 |
| 41043-Precinct 076 | Republican | R+44.2 | 2,260 |
| 41043-Precinct 048 | Republican | R+11.4 | 2,255 |
| 41043-Precinct 005 | Republican | R+0.5 | 1,990 |
| 41043-Precinct 001 | Democratic | D+12.2 | 1,766 |
| 41043-Precinct 016 | Republican | R+5.2 | 1,692 |
| 41043-Precinct 010 | Republican | R+9.0 | 1,689 |
| 41043-Precinct 014 | Republican | R+3.3 | 1,660 |
| 41047-788 | Republican | R+46.7 | 1,481 |
| 41043-Precinct 061 | Republican | R+23.9 | 1,433 |
| 41043-Precinct 013 | Republican | R+18.7 | 1,428 |
| 41043-Precinct 067 | Republican | R+15.3 | 1,337 |
| 41043-Precinct 082 | Republican | R+11.0 | 1,335 |
| 41047-779 | Republican | R+26.2 | 1,267 |
| 41043-Precinct 009 | Republican | R+11.6 | 1,163 |
| 41043-Precinct 085 | Republican | R+50.3 | 949 |
| 41043-Precinct 015 | Republican | R+54.2 | 887 |
| 41043-Precinct 008 | Republican | R+22.5 | 830 |
All 30 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Oregon State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Oregon State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Oregon State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Oregon State House District 15?
Shelly Boshart Davis (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Oregon State House District 15?
R+16.4 — 15,566 Democratic, 22,197 Republican, of 40,411 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.