electionsmcp › races › Oregon State House District 21
Oregon State House District 21
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Oregon actually voted.
Model Oregon State House District 21 →
Current officeholder
Kevin Mannix Republican
2024 result
Republican R+3.6
2024 votes cast
30,676
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
15 precincts reported in Oregon State House District 21's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41047-405 | Republican | R+8.4 | 4,763 |
| 41047-402 | Republican | R+17.5 | 4,148 |
| 41047-403 | Republican | R+20.7 | 3,717 |
| 41047-310 | Democratic | D+28.3 | 3,456 |
| 41047-404 | Republican | R+15.2 | 3,177 |
| 41047-314 | Democratic | D+28.6 | 2,890 |
| 41047-401 | Republican | R+21.2 | 2,362 |
| 41047-673 | Republican | R+6.8 | 2,005 |
| 41047-362 | Democratic | D+12.1 | 1,903 |
| 41047-406 | Republican | R+14.7 | 890 |
| 41047-354 | Democratic | D+7.0 | 702 |
| 41047-320 | Democratic | D+5.7 | 454 |
| 41047-592 | Republican | R+44.0 | 125 |
| 41047-355 | Republican | R+11.8 | 51 |
| 41047-589 | Republican | R+3.0 | 33 |
All 15 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Oregon State House District 21 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Oregon State House District 21 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Oregon State House District 21 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Oregon State House District 21?
Kevin Mannix (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Oregon State House District 21?
R+3.6 — 13,822 Democratic, 14,924 Republican, of 30,676 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.