electionsmcp › races › Michigan State House District 15
Michigan State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Michigan actually voted.
Model Michigan State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
Erin Byrnes Democratic
2024 result
Democratic D+12.6
2024 votes cast
35,486
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
44 precincts reported in Michigan State House District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 25 | Democratic | D+4.9 | 1,419 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 12 | Democratic | D+12.1 | 1,289 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 45 | Democratic | D+17.7 | 1,245 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 49 | Democratic | D+15.3 | 1,218 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 23 | Democratic | D+5.1 | 1,205 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 24 | Republican | D+2.3 | 1,188 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 26 | Republican | D+0.1 | 1,164 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 11 | Democratic | D+12.8 | 1,134 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 46 | Democratic | D+21.6 | 1,127 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 21 | Democratic | D+7.9 | 1,107 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 37 | Democratic | D+12.7 | 1,103 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 44 | Democratic | D+26.7 | 1,093 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 41 | Democratic | D+9.2 | 1,085 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 38 | Democratic | D+4.3 | 1,080 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 27 | Democratic | D+6.4 | 1,068 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 22 | Democratic | D+10.9 | 1,050 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 50 | Democratic | D+22.2 | 1,022 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn, Precinct 33 | Democratic | D+8.0 | 988 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 16 | Republican | D+4.3 | 972 |
| 26163-City of Dearborn Heights, Precinct 6 | Democratic | D+8.0 | 963 |
All 44 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Michigan State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Michigan State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Michigan State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Michigan State House District 15?
Erin Byrnes (Democratic) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Michigan State House District 15?
D+12.6 — 19,974 Democratic, 15,512 Republican, of 35,486 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.