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Missouri's 3rd Congressional District

The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Missouri actually voted.

Model Missouri's 3rd Congressional District →

Missouri's 3rd Congressional District — highlighted within Missouri's U.S. House districts · 2024: R+26.0 · open the interactive map →

Current officeholder

Robert F. Onder, Jr. Republican

2024 result

Republican R+26.0

2024 votes cast

392,463

Office

U.S. House

District health & safety estimate

Context for Robert F. Onder, Jr.'s district

CDC WONDER, 2016–2022 · translated from county data

#272 highest estimated rate of 412 districts with publishable coverage

4.3estimated homicides per 100,000 residents / year

Reporting-population coverage82.9%

This is a county-derived estimate, not a direct CDC congressional-district statistic. Counties with suppressed small counts are missing, never counted as zero. Rank 1 is the highest estimated rate.

Who lives in this district

This district is home to about 775,773 people, median age 39.2, median household income $80,027.

Population

775,773

Median age

39.2

Median household income

$80,027

Bachelor's degree or higher

35.2%

Race & ethnicity: White 85.2% · Black 4.7% · Hispanic 3.5% · Asian 2.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).

Precinct results — 2024 general

328 precincts reported in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:

Precinct Winner Margin Votes
29183-ABSENTEE Republican R+7.5 54,356
29099-ABSENTEE Republican R+28.5 13,710
29051-ABSENTEE Republican R+23.3 11,806
29027-ABSENTEE Republican R+27.6 5,739
29221-ABSENTEE Republican R+53.0 3,440
29019-31&32&42 Republican R+35.0 2,917
29055-CUBA Republican R+60.4 2,870
29131-AB. Republican R+57.5 2,844
29019-30&35&43 Republican R+26.4 2,754
29183-604 Republican R+7.7 2,552
29183-115 Republican R+35.4 2,464
29183-709 Republican R+16.7 2,459
29055-ABSENTEE Republican R+46.4 2,430
29019-4B&21 Democratic D+12.4 2,363
29029-ABSENTEE Republican R+41.5 2,342
29183-710 Republican R+14.7 2,222
29027-HOLTS SUMMIT COUNTY Republican R+50.8 2,220
29183-506 Republican R+9.9 2,158
29029-HORSESHOE BEND Republican R+47.5 2,141
29183-202 Republican R+32.8 2,116

All 328 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.

Find your district

Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.

Model Missouri's 3rd Congressional District in five steps

  1. Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Missouri's 3rd Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
  2. Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
  3. Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
  4. Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
  5. Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.

Open Missouri's 3rd Congressional District in the simulator →

Frequently asked

Who represents Missouri's 3rd Congressional District?
Robert F. Onder, Jr. (Republican) currently holds this U.S. House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District?
R+26.0 — 138,532 Democratic, 240,620 Republican, of 392,463 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.
What is the homicide-rate estimate for Missouri's 3rd Congressional District?
Missouri's 3rd Congressional District has a county-derived estimate of 4.3 homicides per 100,000 residents per year and ranks 272 of 412 districts with publishable coverage, where rank 1 is the highest estimated rate. Reporting-population coverage is 82.9%.

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