electionsmcp › races › Missouri State House District 51
Missouri State House District 51
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Missouri actually voted.
Model Missouri State House District 51 →
Current officeholder
Mark Nolte Republican
2024 result
Republican R+47.8
2024 votes cast
16,786
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
30 precincts reported in Missouri State House District 51's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29107-204_HIGGINSVILLE | Republican | R+51.7 | 2,138 |
| 29195-ABT_ABSENTEE | Republican | R+24.0 | 2,050 |
| 29107-41_AULLVILLE-CONCORDIA | Republican | R+69.0 | 1,518 |
| 29107-211_ABSENTEE | Republican | R+36.9 | 1,259 |
| 29195-M-1_MARSHALL 1 | Republican | R+32.3 | 1,079 |
| 29195-SL_SLATER | Republican | R+42.5 | 891 |
| 29107-202_NORTH ODESSA/EAST ODESSA | Republican | R+54.4 | 885 |
| 29195-M-2_MARSHALL 2 | Republican | R+37.7 | 864 |
| 29195-SS_SWEET SPRINGS | Republican | R+63.4 | 842 |
| 29195-M-4_MARSHALL 4 | Republican | R+33.0 | 743 |
| 29195-M-3_MARSHALL 3 | Republican | R+34.3 | 709 |
| 29107-207_ALMA & E. DAVIS | Republican | R+78.8 | 471 |
| 29107-209_S. ODESSA/ LAKE LAFAYETTE | Republican | R+44.8 | 384 |
| 29107-208_WAVERLY | Republican | R+74.2 | 380 |
| 29195-BLKW_BLACKWATER/SALT FORK | Republican | R+59.1 | 318 |
| 29107-205_CORDER | Republican | R+56.4 | 280 |
| 29107-210_MAYVIEW | Republican | R+53.1 | 277 |
| 29195-HERN_HERNDON | Republican | R+69.3 | 274 |
| 29195-BLKB_BLACKBURN | Republican | R+69.1 | 272 |
| 29195-MI_MIAMI | Republican | R+58.2 | 225 |
All 30 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Missouri State House District 51 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Missouri State House District 51 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Missouri State House District 51 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Missouri State House District 51?
Mark Nolte (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Missouri State House District 51?
R+47.8 — 4,377 Democratic, 12,409 Republican, of 16,786 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.