electionsmcp › races › New Mexico State Senate District 21
New Mexico State Senate District 21
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how New Mexico actually voted.
Model New Mexico State Senate District 21 →
Current officeholder
Nicole Tobiassen Republican
2024 result
being added
Office
State Senate
Precinct results — 2024 general
64 precincts reported in New Mexico State Senate District 21's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35001-PCT 469 | Republican | R+15.5 | 729 |
| 35001-PCT 541 | Republican | R+38.7 | 682 |
| 35001-PCT 468 | Democratic | D+2.6 | 661 |
| 35001-PCT 485 | Republican | R+5.0 | 655 |
| 35001-PCT 418 | Democratic | D+17.4 | 644 |
| 35001-PCT 594 | Republican | R+16.5 | 642 |
| 35001-PCT 470 | Democratic | D+7.0 | 639 |
| 35001-PCT 457 | Republican | R+2.5 | 628 |
| 35001-PCT 361 | Republican | R+24.1 | 590 |
| 35001-PCT 447 | Republican | R+25.9 | 583 |
| 35001-PCT 422 | Republican | R+3.8 | 582 |
| 35001-PCT 430 | Republican | R+0.9 | 579 |
| 35001-PCT 602 | Democratic | D+1.9 | 577 |
| 35001-PCT 560 | Republican | R+18.0 | 571 |
| 35001-PCT 501 | Republican | R+15.2 | 566 |
| 35001-PCT 592 | Republican | R+17.2 | 565 |
| 35001-PCT 487 | Republican | R+0.2 | 559 |
| 35001-PCT 423 | Democratic | D+5.0 | 556 |
| 35001-PCT 410 | Democratic | D+9.6 | 553 |
| 35001-PCT 588 | Republican | R+11.2 | 552 |
All 64 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model New Mexico State Senate District 21 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the New Mexico State Senate District 21 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open New Mexico State Senate District 21 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents New Mexico State Senate District 21?
Nicole Tobiassen (Republican) currently holds this State Senate seat.
What was the 2024 result in New Mexico State Senate District 21?
Precinct-level 2024 results for this race are being added.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.