electionsmcp › races › Arkansas State House District 45
Arkansas State House District 45
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arkansas actually voted.
Model Arkansas State House District 45 →
Current officeholder
Aaron Pilkington Republican
2024 result
Republican R+53.5
2024 votes cast
11,361
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
17 precincts reported in Arkansas State House District 45's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05115-LONDON OUT/JP6 | Republican | R+60.6 | 1,218 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 2 | Republican | R+59.6 | 1,100 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 10 | Republican | R+55.4 | 954 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 1 | Republican | R+52.8 | 899 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 4 | Republican | R+58.9 | 876 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 3 | Republican | R+57.9 | 860 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 7 | Republican | R+59.3 | 805 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 6 | Republican | R+43.0 | 797 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 5 | Republican | R+54.3 | 762 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 8 | Republican | R+33.1 | 691 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 9 | Republican | R+21.9 | 543 |
| 05115-MARTIN 1/JP4 | Republican | R+61.0 | 420 |
| 05071-PRECINCT 11 | Republican | R+38.7 | 411 |
| 05115-BAYLISS/JP6 | Republican | R+65.5 | 394 |
| 05115-LONDON IN/JP6 | Republican | R+64.2 | 391 |
| 05115-MARTIN 2/JP6 | Republican | R+75.5 | 163 |
| 05115-MARTIN 3/JP6 | Republican | R+55.8 | 77 |
All 17 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arkansas State House District 45 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arkansas State House District 45 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arkansas State House District 45 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arkansas State House District 45?
Aaron Pilkington (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arkansas State House District 45?
R+53.5 — 2,639 Democratic, 8,722 Republican, of 11,361 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.