electionsmcp › races › Arkansas State House District 15
Arkansas State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arkansas actually voted.
Model Arkansas State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
John P. Carr Republican
2024 result
Republican R+13.2
2024 votes cast
9,711
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
20 precincts reported in Arkansas State House District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05007-PRECINCT 338 | Republican | R+10.0 | 1,335 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 176 | Republican | R+14.5 | 1,032 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 262 | Republican | R+9.4 | 1,013 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 336 | Republican | R+31.0 | 893 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 266 | Republican | R+1.5 | 875 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 264 | Republican | R+8.4 | 712 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 270 | Republican | R+7.0 | 529 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 259 | Republican | R+31.9 | 458 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 261 | Republican | R+24.4 | 450 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 263 | Republican | R+8.5 | 398 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 260 | Republican | R+19.8 | 369 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 267 | Republican | R+9.9 | 364 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 337 | Republican | R+26.2 | 347 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 187 | Republican | R+7.7 | 327 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 271 | Republican | R+2.0 | 298 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 269 | Democratic | D+2.6 | 115 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 265 | Republican | R+21.9 | 82 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 193 | Democratic | D+9.4 | 53 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 268 | Democratic | D+38.5 | 52 |
| 05007-PRECINCT 339 | Republican | R+100.0 | 9 |
All 20 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arkansas State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arkansas State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arkansas State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arkansas State House District 15?
John P. Carr (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arkansas State House District 15?
R+13.2 — 4,213 Democratic, 5,498 Republican, of 9,711 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.