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Kentucky's 4th Congressional District
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Kentucky actually voted.
Model Kentucky's 4th Congressional District →
Current officeholder
Thomas Massie Republican
2024 result
Republican R+99.6
2024 votes cast
279,635
Office
U.S. House
District health & safety estimate
Context for Thomas Massie's district
CDC WONDER, 2016–2022 · translated from county data
2.7estimated homicides per 100,000 residents / year
This is a county-derived estimate, not a direct CDC congressional-district statistic. Counties with suppressed small counts are missing, never counted as zero. Rank 1 is the highest estimated rate.
Who lives in this district
This district is home to about 756,119 people, median age 39.3, median household income $78,569.
Population
756,119
Median age
39.3
Median household income
$78,569
Bachelor's degree or higher
31.4%
Race & ethnicity: White 87.6% · Black 3.2% · Hispanic 4.3% · Asian 1.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).
Precinct results — 2024 general
423 precincts reported in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21081-B102 | Republican | R+99.8 | 3,325 |
| 21081-A101 | Republican | R+99.8 | 3,242 |
| 21081-C103 | Republican | R+99.8 | 3,215 |
| 21117-B208 IND 1 IND-SB2 | Republican | R+99.9 | 2,103 |
| 21215-A101A | Republican | R+99.9 | 1,743 |
| 21117-B221 NICH 3 | Republican | R+99.7 | 1,727 |
| 21117-B216 IND 8 IND-SB1 | Republican | R+99.9 | 1,658 |
| 21015-B123 | Republican | R+99.5 | 1,653 |
| 21015-B121 | Republican | R+99.7 | 1,636 |
| 21015-B122 | Republican | R+99.5 | 1,583 |
| 21135-A100 | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,554 |
| 21117-C307 EDG 3 EDG-SB3 | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,551 |
| 21037-B803 | Republican | R+99.0 | 1,528 |
| 21037-A804 | Republican | R+99.6 | 1,520 |
| 21117-A119 FTW 1 | Republican | R+99.9 | 1,502 |
| 21015-A121 | Republican | R+99.4 | 1,501 |
| 21015-A117 | Republican | R+99.1 | 1,496 |
| 21015-B135 | Republican | R+99.7 | 1,480 |
| 21117-C301 CSP | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,470 |
| 21015-A114 | Republican | R+98.8 | 1,399 |
All 423 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Kentucky's 4th Congressional District in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Kentucky's 4th Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Kentucky's 4th Congressional District in the simulator →