electionsmcp › races › Arkansas State House District 38
Arkansas State House District 38
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Arkansas actually voted.
Model Arkansas State House District 38 →
Current officeholder
Dwight Tosh Republican
2024 result
Republican R+100.0
2024 votes cast
10,242
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
25 precincts reported in Arkansas State House District 38's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05111-BOLIVAR | Republican | R+100.0 | 1,267 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 8 | Republican | R+100.0 | 979 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 9 | Republican | R+100.0 | 761 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 11 | Republican | R+100.0 | 737 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 41 | Republican | R+100.0 | 678 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 17 | Republican | R+100.0 | 661 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 13 | Republican | R+100.0 | 653 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 42 | Republican | R+100.0 | 631 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 16 | Republican | R+100.0 | 565 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 12 | Republican | R+100.0 | 553 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 15 | Republican | R+100.0 | 478 |
| 05111-GREENFIELD | Republican | R+100.0 | 456 |
| 05067-SWIFTON | Republican | R+100.0 | 297 |
| 05111-LITTLE RIVER PAYNEWAY | Republican | R+100.0 | 290 |
| 05111-WEST PRAIRIE | Republican | R+100.0 | 281 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 43 | Republican | R+100.0 | 243 |
| 05067-TUCKERMAN WARD 3 | Republican | R+100.0 | 162 |
| 05067-TUCKERMAN WARD 1 | Republican | R+100.0 | 156 |
| 05031-PRECINCT 14 | Republican | R+100.0 | 122 |
| 05067-TUCKERMAN OUTSIDE | Republican | R+100.0 | 62 |
All 25 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Arkansas State House District 38 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Arkansas State House District 38 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Arkansas State House District 38 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Arkansas State House District 38?
Dwight Tosh (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Arkansas State House District 38?
R+100.0 — 0 Democratic, 10,242 Republican, of 10,242 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.