electionsmcp › races › Utah State House District 15
Utah State House District 15
The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how Utah actually voted.
Model Utah State House District 15 →
Current officeholder
Ariel Defay Republican
2024 result
Republican R+75.7
2024 votes cast
19,660
Office
State House
Precinct results — 2024 general
50 precincts reported in Utah State House District 15's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49011-SY30:I-N- | Republican | R+69.9 | 828 |
| 49011-KA13:I-C- | Republican | R+75.4 | 605 |
| 49011-SY35:I-N- | Republican | R+73.2 | 598 |
| 49011-KA16:I-C- | Republican | R+85.2 | 586 |
| 49011-LA48:I-N- | Republican | R+68.2 | 576 |
| 49011-LA45:I-N- | Republican | R+80.2 | 556 |
| 49011-KA01:I-C- | Republican | R+73.9 | 537 |
| 49011-LA63:I-N- | Republican | R+77.7 | 537 |
| 49011-KA24:I-C- | Republican | R+78.8 | 532 |
| 49011-KA15:I-C- | Republican | R+82.0 | 521 |
| 49011-LA46:I-N- | Republican | R+83.7 | 515 |
| 49011-KA25:I-C- | Republican | R+88.5 | 502 |
| 49011-LA64:I-N- | Republican | R+72.7 | 502 |
| 49011-KA14:I-C- | Republican | R+81.4 | 495 |
| 49011-SY34:I-N- | Republican | R+76.5 | 485 |
| 49011-LA49:I-N- | Republican | R+77.5 | 471 |
| 49011-LA60:I-N- | Republican | R+77.2 | 469 |
| 49011-LA25:I-N- | Republican | R+69.0 | 467 |
| 49011-KA02:I-C- | Republican | R+80.3 | 466 |
| 49011-LA74:I-N- | Republican | R+80.7 | 456 |
All 50 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.
Find your district
Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.
Model Utah State House District 15 in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Utah State House District 15 (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Utah State House District 15 in the simulator →
Frequently asked
Who represents Utah State House District 15?
Ariel Defay (Republican) currently holds this State House seat.
What was the 2024 result in Utah State House District 15?
R+75.7 — 0 Democratic, 14,885 Republican, of 19,660 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.