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New Jersey's 4th Congressional District

The current officeholder, the 2024 result, and a precinct-level model you can run yourself — built from how New Jersey actually voted.

Model New Jersey's 4th Congressional District →

New Jersey's 4th Congressional District — highlighted within New Jersey's U.S. House districts · 2024: R+35.7 · open the interactive map →

Current officeholder

Christopher H. Smith Republican

2024 result

Republican R+35.7

2024 votes cast

394,546

Office

U.S. House

District health & safety estimate

Context for Christopher H. Smith's district

CDC WONDER, 2016–2022 · translated from county data

#408 highest estimated rate of 412 districts with publishable coverage

1.4estimated homicides per 100,000 residents / year

Reporting-population coverage100.0%

This is a county-derived estimate, not a direct CDC congressional-district statistic. Counties with suppressed small counts are missing, never counted as zero. Rank 1 is the highest estimated rate.

Who lives in this district

This district is home to about 780,618 people, median age 41.1, median household income $95,512.

Population

780,618

Median age

41.1

Median household income

$95,512

Bachelor's degree or higher

39.5%

Race & ethnicity: White 80.2% · Black 3.5% · Hispanic 11% · Asian 2.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019–2023 American Community Survey (5-year).

Precinct results — 2024 general

516 precincts reported in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District's 2024 general election. The twenty largest:

Precinct Winner Margin Votes
34029-Lakewood District 15 Republican R+89.5 3,230
34029-Lakewood District 06 Republican R+93.7 2,616
34029-Lakewood District 12 Republican R+97.2 2,053
34029-Manchester District 02 Republican R+25.9 1,872
34029-Lacey District 16 Republican R+38.8 1,838
34025-Howell Township 27 Republican R+29.2 1,635
34029-Lakewood District 08 Republican R+90.0 1,602
34029-Lakewood District 10 Republican R+97.4 1,592
34029-Lakewood District 37 Republican R+95.5 1,565
34025-Tinton Falls Borough 01 Republican R+12.6 1,392
34025-Howell Township 31 Republican R+22.8 1,350
34029-Lacey District 10 Republican R+43.4 1,337
34029-Lacey District 09 Republican R+42.4 1,336
34029-Manchester District 40 Republican R+41.2 1,333
34025-Brielle Borough 01 Republican R+29.1 1,318
34029-Lakewood District 13 Republican R+84.4 1,317
34029-Lacey District 02 Republican R+44.2 1,294
34029-Lakewood District 16 Republican R+94.4 1,289
34025-Colts Neck Township 07 Republican R+43.9 1,284
34025-Howell Township 26 Republican R+36.2 1,272

All 516 precincts are modelable — open the race in the simulator and drill to precinct grain.

Find your district

Enter a ZIP code or a district (e.g. NC-4) to find your U.S. House district and who represents it.

Model New Jersey's 4th Congressional District in five steps

  1. Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the New Jersey's 4th Congressional District (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
  2. Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
  3. Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
  4. Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
  5. Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.

Open New Jersey's 4th Congressional District in the simulator →

Frequently asked

Who represents New Jersey's 4th Congressional District?
Christopher H. Smith (Republican) currently holds this U.S. House seat.
What was the 2024 result in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District?
R+35.7 — 124,803 Democratic, 265,652 Republican, of 394,546 votes cast.
Can I model this race myself?
Yes — open it in the electionsmcp simulator and model vote-share swing and turnout from the real 2024 baseline, down to the precinct, then roll it up to chamber control.
What is the homicide-rate estimate for New Jersey's 4th Congressional District?
New Jersey's 4th Congressional District has a county-derived estimate of 1.4 homicides per 100,000 residents per year and ranks 408 of 412 districts with publishable coverage, where rank 1 is the highest estimated rate. Reporting-population coverage is 100.0%.

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