electionsmcp › 2028 races › U.S. Senate › Utah
2028 Utah U.S. Senate Race
A visual scenario calculator for Utah's 2028 Senate contest — model swing and turnout across the finest supported local grain, then roll it up to control of the chamber.
Office
U.S. Senate
Seat class
Class III
On the ballot
2028
Current hold
Republican
Both of Utah's U.S. Senate seats are currently Republican-held. The seat on the ballot in 2028 is Utah's Class III seat; the state's other seat (Class I, Republican) is not up this cycle. The canonical mixed-grain 2024 presidential baseline uses verified precinct or reporting-unit results where supported, with declared county/state fallbacks elsewhere.
Model the Utah Senate race in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Utah Senate race (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from the canonical mixed-grain 2024 presidential baseline.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Explore local geography. Zoom from the state through counties to the finest supported reporting grain and adjust the places available in the model.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then share the exact versioned scenario.
What you can change
Persuasion (vote share) and turnout (mobilization) are modeled separately — statewide, by demographic cohort, by county, and at the supported local reporting grain. Then roll up the seat into the national picture: how this race moves the Senate's 51-seat majority threshold.