electionsmcp › 2028 races › U.S. Senate › Connecticut
2028 Connecticut U.S. Senate Race
A visual scenario calculator for Connecticut's 2028 Senate contest — model swing and turnout down to the precinct, then roll it up to control of the chamber.
Model the Connecticut Senate race →
Office
U.S. Senate
Seat class
Class III
On the ballot
2028
Current hold
Democratic
Both of Connecticut's U.S. Senate seats are currently Democratic-held. The seat on the ballot in 2028 is Connecticut's Class III seat; the state's other seat (Class I, Democratic) is not up this cycle. Every race in electionsmcp is built from the same atoms: 163,925 U.S. precincts with 2024 results, so Connecticut's map starts from how the state actually voted.
Model the Connecticut Senate race in five steps
- Set the candidates. Name the contenders for the Connecticut Senate race (or keep the generic Democrat / Republican defaults). The map starts from real 2024 results in every precinct.
- Apply a swing. Move vote share statewide, or by demographic cohort, with a slider. The map and the running tally recompute instantly.
- Model turnout. Mobilize or depress turnout for any group — turnout and persuasion are modeled separately, the way a real campaign thinks about them.
- Drill to precincts. Zoom from the state down to individual precincts and override any of them by hand.
- Roll up & share. Roll the result up to chamber control, then publish a shareable, frozen link to your scenario.
Open Connecticut in the simulator →
What you can change
Persuasion (vote share) and turnout (mobilization) are modeled separately — statewide, by demographic cohort, by county, or precinct by precinct. Then roll up the seat into the national picture: how this race moves the Senate's 51-seat majority threshold.