electionsmcpPublished scenarioScenario · Republican primary · White House 2028
United States President 2028 Republican Primary: JD Vance vs Marco Rubio
The 2028 Desk
Published 2026-07-09 · electionsmcp.com
JD Vance leads the Republican presidential primary with 592 of 1215 delegates needed to win — 51 of 51 contests counted (full calendar).
Republican Primary 2028 · 1215 to clinch
592JD Vance leads
48.7% of the way to the nomination
JD Vance
592
Marco Rubio
165
Ted Cruz
161
Brian Kemp
59
Nikki Haley
50
Glenn Youngkin
48
Ron DeSantis
0
Donald Trump Jr.
0
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
0
Doug Burgum
0
Tim Scott
0
Kristi Noem
0
Vivek Ramaswamy
0
Josh Hawley
0
Tom Cotton
0
Tulsi Gabbard
0
51/51 contests · 1075 delegates allocated · full calendar
How this scenario was built
16-candidate Republican field modeled across the 16 largest early and Super Tuesday contests (1,075 of 2,412 delegates) on the RNC 2028 calendar with winner-take-all/state allocation rules. Shares are scenario assumptions, not polls. Uncertainty from 2,000 Monte Carlo trials with a bounded poll-error model (4pp national, 5pp per-state, 1 sigma): Vance is the most likely nominee at 89.6% but no candidate clinches 1,215 before the convention in any trial — a contested convention is the modal outcome.
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