Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads the Democratic presidential primary with 215 of 1990 delegates needed to win — 51 of 51 contests counted (full calendar).
Democratic Primary 2028 · 1990 to clinch
215Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads
10.8% of the way to the nomination
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
215
Pete Buttigieg
157
Gavin Newsom
140
Josh Shapiro
0
JB Pritzker
0
51/51 contests · 512 delegates allocated · full calendar
How this scenario was built
[loop-trial] Event ev_31031f93 (poll_shift). On 2026-05-12, Newsweek reported that a pollster it rates most accurate shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez taking first place for the first time in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary (national). Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNcW50UHZrVHY0SElQZW5hQUtEa0psbkhqTjRSUzU5bWVXdTJzZ2xXc0UzcXo5Nno5ckZBMFFSa2I1Q2ZLZlBQVmZJV1hlX2EzTEx4cm9yRFhsOExLZXVkZElOSUFxWEFJUDQtWmlmMF9HVEpIa29VeVNQaXF3WWhEWGRkR0M?oc=5
Translation. The national topline (representative shares AOC 26 / Buttigieg 19 / Newsom 17 / Shapiro 12 / Pritzker 7) was hand-fanned uniformly into NH, SC, and CA via set_primary_shares — the platform has no national-poll applicator, so three states stand in for the national picture. Poll wave stored as pw_mgneuzp1 in series "[loop-trial] ev_31031f93 2028 Dem primary national".
Result (before → after). Before: empty D field, no delegates allocated. After: AOC leads the Democratic delegate rollup 215–157–140 (512 of 3,877 allocated; 1,990 to win). Under the Dem proportional rule with its 15% viability threshold, Shapiro (12%) and Pritzker (7%) win zero delegates in every modeled state — the viability line is doing visible work. Inflection annotation an_250t4yg4 marks 2026-05-12 on the scenario.
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