electionsmcpPublished scenarioScenario · Democratic primary · White House 2028
United States President 2028 Democratic Primary: Gavin Newsom vs Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
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Published 2026-07-09 · electionsmcp.com
Gavin Newsom leads the Democratic presidential primary with 526 of 1990 delegates needed to win — 16 of 51 contests counted (through Missouri).
Democratic Primary 2028 · 1990 to clinch
526Gavin Newsom leads
26.4% of the way to the nomination
Gavin Newsom
526
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
447
Gretchen Whitmer
122
JB Pritzker
65
Raphael Warnock
63
Pete Buttigieg
39
Kamala Harris
34
Andy Beshear
7
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1
Wes Moore
1
Cory Booker
1
Elizabeth Warren
1
Josh Shapiro
1
Dean Phillips
1
Amy Klobuchar
1
Marianne Williamson
0
16/51 contests · 1310 delegates allocated · through Missouri
How this scenario was built
Thesis
A 16-candidate 2028 Democratic primary with home-state boosts and a college-educated demographic lever on AOC produces a contested convention: Newsom 1760, AOC 1622, nobody at 1990.
Modeling notes
Full 51-contest calendar via batch set_primary_shares
AOC levers: college +6, immig +4, highHome +3
Monte Carlo (2000 trials): contested_convention_prob ≈ 0.86; Newsom most_likely_nominee ≈ 0.48
Viability fallback (DNC Rule 14) applied in NH/WY/AK
Caveats for readers
Demographic levers rewrite statewide effective shares and can push candidates across the 15% viability line relative to the shares the modeler entered.
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