Race

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Electoral College · 270 to win

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Dem EV

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GOP EV

Popular vote: —

Candidates (per level)

Uniform swing Positive = swing toward the selected candidate. Negative = swing away. (-15 to +15 pp)

Apply to every county →

0pp

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Demographic share President only Shifts the candidate's share in matching counties — persuasion (zero-sum). + toward, − away.

College-dense counties (>20% BA share)

0pp

Counties >15% foreign-born

0pp

Counties median home >$500K

0pp

Counties median home <$200K

0pp

Counties unemployment >6%

0pp

Turnout by demographic mobilize / demobilize Turns the candidate's voters out in matching counties — mobilization (+) / demobilization (−). Adds votes, raising both their share and the area's weight in the state total.

College-dense counties (>20% BA share)

Counties >15% foreign-born

Counties median home >$500K

Counties median home <$200K

Counties unemployment >6%

Model a smaller race (zoom this sim into one campaign)

The sim zooms into this one contest — candidates, map, tally, and priority precincts all scoped to the race you pick.

Every precinct. Every margin, mapped.

Candidates (per level)

Uniform swing Positive = swing toward the selected candidate. Negative = swing away. (-15 to +15 pp)

Demographic share President only Shifts the candidate's share in matching counties — persuasion (zero-sum). + toward, − away.

Turnout by demographic mobilize / demobilize Turns the candidate's voters out in matching counties — mobilization (+) / demobilization (−). Adds votes, raising both their share and the area's weight in the state total.

Model a smaller race (zoom this sim into one campaign)

Scenarios (saved to workspace cache)

Priority precincts —

Flipped counties 0 · 0 manually forced

Candidates (per level)

Uniform swing iPositive = swing toward the selected candidate. Negative = swing away. (-15 to +15 pp)

Demographic share President only iShifts the candidate's share in matching counties — persuasion (zero-sum). + toward, − away.

Turnout by demographic mobilize / demobilize iTurns the candidate's voters out in matching counties — mobilization (+) / demobilization (−). Adds votes, raising both their share and the area's weight in the state total.

Model a smaller race (zoom this sim into one campaign)

Scenarios (saved to workspace cache)

Priority precincts —

Flipped counties 0 · 0 manually forced

Uniform swing Positive = swing toward the selected candidate. Negative = swing away. (-15 to +15 pp)

Demographic share President only Shifts the candidate's share in matching counties — persuasion (zero-sum). + toward, − away.

Turnout by demographic mobilize / demobilize Turns the candidate's voters out in matching counties — mobilization (+) / demobilization (−). Adds votes, raising both their share and the area's weight in the state total.